Ten reasons your risk premium is too high

• Endowment is unmatched. Congo accounts for about 74 percent of global mined cobalt. That by product revenue supports copper and battery metals economics. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}
• Tier one copper now, not just someday. Kamoa Kakula delivered 437,061 tonnes in 2024 and is guiding higher. District scale reduces unit costs and supports long life cash flows. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}
• Policy repair in key hubs. Zambia reinstated mineral royalty deductibility for CIT from 2022 which lifted after tax returns and investor sentiment. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
• Corridors are opening. The Lobito rail and port corridor is receiving major US and partner backing to move Copperbelt metals to the Atlantic faster with less congestion. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}
• Lithium is real, not a pitch deck. Goulamina in Mali shipped first lithium concentrate in 2024 to 2025 which proves African hard rock supply can reach market. :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}
• Risk cover is deep and available. MIGA issued a record 8.2 billion dollars of guarantees in FY24, including political risk and credit enhancement that crowd in private capital. :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}
• DFIs and ECAs are leaning in. Afreximbank continues to expand trade and project support while the US DFC approved new Africa transactions to strengthen critical mineral supply chains. :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}
• Structures cap downside. Well drafted ERPAs, prepayment and streaming, PRI, and step in rights can ring fence many country risks into contract risk with clear remedies.
• Multiple routes reduce single point failure. Copperbelt exports can move via TAZARA to Dar es Salaam or through Lobito as capacity ramps which gives scheduling and price power. :contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}
• Competition already figured this out. Global majors and Chinese groups are deploying billions across Cu Co and Li. Sitting out does not lower risk. It just cedes price and offtake. :contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}

How serious capital manages risk instead of avoiding it

• Layer the stack. Political risk insurance for expropriation and transfer, local FX controls in the model, and a security package over inventory, receivables, and accounts.
• Contract for control. ERPAs or offtakes with price floors, replacement rules, and warehouse control. Escrow waterfalls that sweep sales proceeds to repay advances first.
• Share the risk. Bring in DFIs or ECAs for partial guarantees. Use Afreximbank for trade lines and confirmations. Syndicate with a confirming bank for LC exposure. :contentReference[oaicite:9]{index=9}
• Pick the right corridor. Build plans for two export routes and lock capacity early on rail or road. Reference Lobito and TAZARA where relevant. :contentReference[oaicite:10]{index=10}
• Tie ESIA to cash. Link drawdowns to environmental and social milestones and community benefits so compliance is not a hope, it is a condition.

Bottom line

The prize is grade and volume at scale. The tools to manage risk exist and are funded. The corridors are improving. Policy is moving in the right direction in key countries. If you underwrite with real control over title, cash, and logistics, Africa does not just clear. It outperforms on a risk adjusted basis.

Disclaimers

• We advise and arrange. We are not your lawyer or tax advisor.
• Country and program rules change. Always confirm current requirements with counsel and regulators.
• All transactions are subject to diligence, approvals, and documentation.