Important Disclosure. This document addresses sophisticated or accredited investors. It is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Data are drawn from public sources and FG Capital Advisors analysis as of July 2025.
Lithium Exploration Guide — Democratic Republic of Congo
The DRC hosts some of the world’s largest unexploited hard‑rock lithium pegmatites. The flagship Manono deposit alone contains an estimated 400 Mt at 1.65 % Li₂O, yet the country’s total prospective footprint spans over 4 000 km² of LCT‑type pegmatite corridors. With global battery‑grade lithium carbonate prices hovering around USD 15 000/t and long‑term demand projected to triple by 2035, disciplined exploration capital in the DRC commands asymmetric upside.
1. Geological Setting
- The Manono–Kitotolo trend is the largest lithium‑bearing pegmatite field ever identified, with spodumene crystals exceeding 3 m in length.
- Satellite targets at Kabunda, Malemba and Tanganyika exhibit surface Li₂O grades of 0.9–1.8 % in channel sampling.
- Recent airborne magnetics confirm multiple dyke swarms parallel to the main Manono structure, suggesting repetition at depth.
- Weathering is shallow; fresh spodumene appears from 3 m below surface, reducing strip ratios in early pit shells.
2. Demand and Pricing Outlook
- Benchmark projections show a supply gap of 600 kt LCE by 2030 if no new Tier‑1 projects reach commissioning.
- Battery‑grade lithium carbonate prices averaged USD 14 900/t in H1 2025 after retrenching from the 2022 high; consensus long‑run incentive price stands at USD 12 000–13 000/t.
- OEMs are shifting to direct offtake from mine mouth, preferring hard‑rock feed due to predictable chemistry and short lead times.
- China currently refines 58 % of global LCE; automakers seek alternative supply chains for geopolitical risk diversification, boosting interest in African material.
3. Regulatory Snapshot
- Exploration licences valid for five years, renewable once. Annual surface tax USD 12/km² in Katanga Province.
- Royalty on lithium ores set at 3.5 % of FOB value; export of unprocessed ore discouraged via escalated export fees.
- Environmental baseline studies mandatory before percussion drilling; full ESIA triggered at pilot pit stage.
- State’s 10 % free‑carried interest applies only when exploitation permit is granted, not during exploration.
4. Exploration Workflow and Budget Benchmarks
| Stage | Scope | Budget Range (USD) | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target Generation | Remote sensing, ground truthing, XRF, soil geochem over 100 km² | 800 000 – 1.2 million | 4–5 months |
| Phase‑1 Drilling | 5 000 m RC on 100 m centres | 400 000 – 500 000 | 2–3 months |
| Phase‑2 Drilling | 15 000 m diamond on 40 m centres | 2.2 – 2.7 million | 7–9 months |
| MRE & Metallurgy | Inferred/indicated resource, DMS testwork, pilot plant | 4.0 – 5.5 million | 9–12 months |
Total spend to indicated resource typically falls between USD 8–10 million, achieving discovery cost below 2.5 ¢/lb LCE.
5. Valuation Metrics
- Recent African hard‑rock transactions value indicated resources at USD 120–160/t LCE in ground.
- A 50 Mt deposit at 1.3 % Li₂O (~1.6 Mt LCE) and 60 % recovery yields NPV over USD 900 million at USD 15 000/t LCE and 8 % discount rate.
- Discovery‑to‑exit multiples of 6–10× are common once inferred resources convert within two drilling seasons.
6. Risk Controls
- QA/QC — duplicates, blanks, standards at 5 % frequency; dual-lab assays for confirmation.
- Resource Cut-off — 0.7 % Li₂O reporting threshold with pit optimization at USD 10 000/t LCE.
- Community Relations — local stakeholder maps and employment quotas embedded in renewals.
- FX & Cash Management — dual‑currency budget with USD escrow and CDF local spend buffer.
7. Capital Mandate and Pipeline
- Initial ticket: USD 5–12 million per asset, milestone‑based tranches.
- Structure: 65 % equity, 35 % offtake pre‑pay or capped royalty.
- Target return: 35 %+ IRR through strategic exit or partial carry to developer/operator.
- Pipeline: three prospects adjacent to Manono and two licences near Tanganyika under option.
Accredited investors interested in accessing project dossiers, drill plans or economic models may contact contact@fgcapitaladvisors.com.
