Important Disclosure. The information below targets sophisticated or accredited investors and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security. Statistics reflect public sources and FG Capital Advisors analysis as of Q2 2025.
Greenfield Exploration Capital — DRC & Zambia
The Central African Copperbelt already supplies 11 % of global copper and more than 70 % of global cobalt, yet fewer than four in ten prospective licences have seen systematic drilling. Directing private capital into first‑pass and resource‑definition programmes captures metal in the ground at single‑digit cents per pound—well below discovery costs prevailing in the Americas.
1. Geological Potential
- Copper — untested targets hold an estimated 210 million t of contained metal grading 1.3 – 4 % Cu (global open‑pit average ≈ 0.6 %).
- Cobalt — stratiform lenses suggest a further 0.9 million t of Co, equal to roughly four years of current world demand.
- Nickel & Lithium — geochemical data from northern Zambia reveals mafic intrusions and LCT‑type pegmatites with surface grades Ni > 0.4 % and Li₂O > 1.1 %.
- Timeline to Resource — modern RC/diamond programmes frequently move from first drill to JORC inferred status in 24–30 months.
2. Market Drivers
- EV adoption implies a 5 Mt copper supply gap by 2035; cobalt deficits widen beyond 120 kt by 2030.
- LME three‑month copper trades near USD 9 300/t, while consensus long‑run incentive prices sit at USD 8 000 – 8 500/t.
- Major producers have increased exploration budgets by only 1.1 % CAGR since 2020, leaving juniors to fund 55 % of regional drill spend.
3. Regulatory and Fiscal Terms
- DRC — royalties: 3.5 % Cu, 5 % Co; import‑duty exemptions for exploration equipment; state free‑carry (10 %) applies only at mining‑right stage.
- Zambia — sliding royalty 3 – 9 % Cu; four‑year exploration term plus two renewals; corporate tax holiday up to five profitable years on new mines.
- Both jurisdictions allow foreign ownership ≥ 70 % at exploration stage; environmental studies commence only once scout drilling escalates.
4. Exploration Cost Benchmarks
| Programme Stage | Metres | All‑in Cost (USD/m) | Typical Duration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soil & Geophysics | — | 45 000 – 70 000 per km² | 3‑4 months |
| Phase 1 RC Drilling | 3 000 – 5 000 m | 70 – 95 | 2‑3 months |
| Phase 2 Core Drilling | 10 000 – 15 000 m | 140 – 180 | 6‑9 months |
| Resource Upgrade | 25 000 – 40 000 m | 190 – 240 | 8‑12 months |
A three‑stage programme to indicated resource typically costs USD 9 – 15 million, depending on depth, rock competency and access logistics.
5. Valuation Lift Through the Drill Curve
| Milestone | Cumulative Spend (USD) | Median Enterprise Value (USD) | Value per Contained Cu‑eq lb (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soil Anomalies | 0.75 m | 3 – 5 m | 0.3 – 0.5 ¢ |
| Inferred Resource | 3 – 5 m | 20 – 30 m | 1.5 – 2.5 ¢ |
| Indicated Resource | 9 – 12 m | 80 – 120 m | 4 – 6 ¢ |
| Pre‑Feasibility | 15 – 20 m | 180 – 260 m | 8 – 12 ¢ |
Copper acquired in ground via mature M&A now averages 26 ¢/lb across the Americas; successful Copperbelt exploration therefore commands four‑ to eight‑times uplift from drill cost to exit.
6. Principal Risk Controls
- QA/QC — samples, blanks and standards at 5 % frequency; assays split across two ISO‑certified labs.
- Milestone Funding — capital released in tranches aligned with grade‑thickness composites and continuity metrics.
- Community Accord — surface‑rights contracts plus annual benefit‑sharing audits pre‑empt social disruption.
- FX Shield — USD escrow (Mauritius) and weekly operating conversions manage kwacha/franc volatility.
7. Capital Mandate Overview
- Typical ticket: USD 3 – 15 million per target, deployed over two to four campaign phases.
- Capital stack: 70 % equity and 30 % metal stream or royalty to an anchor offtaker.
- Target return: net IRR above 30 % within five years via asset sale, JV carry or public listing.
- Current pipeline: seven vetted licences across Lualaba, Haut‑Katanga and North‑Western Zambia with average walk‑up grade 2.1 % Cu.
Qualified investors seeking technical data packs, drill logs or financial models may request secure access by emailing contact@fgcapitaladvisors.com.
