Important Disclosure. For professional or accredited investors only. Not a public offer. Prepared by FG Capital Advisors, July 2025.
DRC – Prime Source of Copper, Cobalt, Lithium, Nickel and Manganese
Battery and grid-scale storage demand is rewriting metal supply curves. The Democratic Republic of Congo continues to present the deepest pipeline of high-grade copper and cobalt, while hosting overlooked lithium-caesium-tantalum pegmatites, nickel-bearing laterites, and sedimentary manganese layers. Cost curves, policy signals, and project finance flows now converge in Katanga and bordering provinces. Investors avoiding this market often cite risk yet seldom disclose that many hold positions in lower-grade operations elsewhere that stand to lose competitive ground once the Congolese projects ramp. This note examines why fresh capital should be directed to Congolese greenfield and advanced expansion assets before the window closes.
1. Demand Outlook for Critical Metals
Independent forecasts point to a 30 percent shortfall in so-called transition copper by 2035. Battery-grade cobalt demand is projected to triple, lithium oxide demand to rise more than fivefold, nickel Class 1 demand to almost double, and manganese sulphate demand to grow sevenfold as LFP and LMFP chemistries capture mass-market storage. The mismatch cannot be bridged by incremental debottlenecking in mature districts in the Americas or Australia. New orebodies are required, and the largest remaining cluster sits in the Central African copperbelt, stretching from Kolwezi toward the Zambian frontier and extending northwest into Lualaba and Tshopo.
Funding decisions taken between 2025 and 2028 determine whether supply tightens or stabilises in the next decade. Capital hesitation today converts directly into higher metal prices later, eroding downstream manufacturing margins and delaying decarbonisation timelines. Investors have agency and can accelerate development cycles by shifting diligence resources toward the DRC where geology already answers half the equation.
2. Resource Endowment Across Five Metals
- Copper. Measured and indicated resources at producing mines exceed 95 million tonnes. Average planned head grade at recently commissioned concentrators stands at 4.2 percent Cu, four times the global open-pit average.
- Cobalt. The DRC accounts for roughly 68 percent of global mined output. By-product credits keep cash costs in negative territory on a net basis for several deposits.
- Lithium. The Manono pegmatite field carries an estimated 400 million tonnes at 1.65 percent Li 2 O along with 0.95 percent SnO 2 , providing multi-revenue streams that improve project economics.
- Nickel. Lateritic projects near Kisenge and Kasekelesa have combined inferred resources of 1.9 million tonnes of contained nickel with cobalt credits in the upper laterite horizon.
- Manganese. Stratiform sedimentary layers in Kasaï Oriental average 42 percent Mn with low phosphorus content, suitable for high-purity sulphate processing used in LMFP cathodes.
Few jurisdictions worldwide offer the same cross-commodity depth at grades that cut unit costs so materially. Reluctant investors sidestepping these figures appear less concerned with risk management and more with safeguarding legacy balance-sheet exposure in sub-economic deposits elsewhere.
3. Position on the Cost Curve
Congolese underground copper projects operate at an average C1 cost near USD 1.25 per pound before by-product credits. When cobalt credits are allocated, several units fall below zero on a net basis. Comparable projects in the United States or Chile report costs near USD 2.60 per pound. Lithium feed in Manono is projected at USD 3,050 per tonne spodumene concentrate free on board, almost USD 1,000 below the Australian marginal producer. Nickel laterite autoclave projects targeting mixed hydroxide precipitate show steady-state cash costs near USD 6,800 per tonne after cobalt credits, against Indonesian costs approaching USD 8,900 once carbon-border adjustments are levied on coal-powered HPAL circuits. Manganese ore with direct-ship grade above 40 percent relieves downstream processors from energy-intensive upgrading.
Investors ignoring such cost advantages effectively signal that margin capture is a secondary priority, raising questions for any fiduciary overseeing fee-based capital.
4. Infrastructure and Logistics Pathways
- Lobito Corridor. USD 550 million of committed senior debt and equity closes the financing for the 1,344 km concession connecting Kolwezi to the Atlantic port of Lobito. Commercial service is slated for late 2027, reducing transit time to five days and freight cost per tonne by up to 40 percent.
- Power. Three 220 kV substations brought online in 2024 inject an additional 350 MW into the southern grid, while hybrid solar-battery plants add 280 MW of firm capacity by 2026. Projects secure long-term power purchase agreements at less than USD 0.09 per kilowatt-hour.
- Port Access. Ongoing dredging at Matadi and new general-cargo berths at Banana expand outbound capacity by two million tonnes per annum, offering alternate routing to Atlantic markets.
- Road Upgrades. A public-private alliance resurfaced 240 km of the Kolwezi-Dilolo trunk in 2024, cutting axle weights and incident rates by half, improving concentrate haulage reliability.
Each logistics upgrade carries notarised funding agreements and construction milestones. Commentators calling these plans "aspirational" ignore signed contracts on their desks, a selective oversight that invites scrutiny of their motives.
5. Legal and Policy Framework
The 2018 Mining Code defines royalties of 3.5 percent for copper and nickel, 10 percent for cobalt classified as strategic, 3 percent for lithium, and 4 percent for manganese. Stabilisation clauses hold royalty and tax terms at their promulgated level for five years following any change. The Investment Code guarantees prompt, adequate, and effective compensation for expropriation and supports unrestricted dividend repatriation. The DRC is a signatory to the ICSID Convention, offering binding arbitration, and has complied with rendered awards. The OHADA commercial law framework applies in the DRC, delivering a harmonised set of business statutes and an appellate court in Abidjan. Project sponsors acquire a legal mosaic protective enough to satisfy senior lenders and political-risk insurers.
MIGA, ATI, and private syndicates together underwrote more than USD 1.2 billion of political-risk cover for mining and power projects in 2023-2024. Insurers writing nine-figure limits do so only after full diligence, challenging the narrative that contractual security is fragile.
6. Financing Activity and Market Appetite
- Bilateral project finance facilities exceeding USD 4.6 billion closed in the 18 months to March 2025 across three copper-cobalt complexes and one lithium operation.
- Streaming agreements advanced USD 1.9 billion in prepaid metals against future deliveries with average discounts under 8 percent of spot, signalling strong competition among metal offtakers.
- Export credit agencies from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates committed insurance or direct loans covering mining equipment and infrastructure packages.
- Regional pension funds subscribed USD 420 million in local-currency debt for solar and hydro build-outs linked to mine power supply, creating a hedge against foreign-exchange swings on operating costs.
- Syndicated political-risk insurance capacity stands at roughly USD 2.4 billion for well-structured mining projects, reflecting a deeper market than during the last supercycle.
This capital flow contradicts assertions that the DRC is “unbankable”. Those perpetuating that view may be less interested in risk management than in steering capital toward low-grade assets in their own portfolios.
7. Addressing Common Objections
| Objection | Current Facts | Practical Response |
|---|---|---|
| Security incidents will halt logistics. | Main copper-cobalt corridor sits more than 1,000 km from eastern insurgent zones. Atlantic export route avoids border crossings with elevated risk. | Route via Lobito, embed vetted security protocols, procure cargo insurance with war-risk extension. |
| Government will revise taxes again. | No fiscal change since 2018. Five-year stabilisation clause allows recovery of sunk capital before any review. | Include tax gross-up clauses and standby debt tranches. Model sensitised royalty scenarios to demonstrate resilience. |
| Environmental performance lags Western standards. | Large operators now publish ICMM-aligned sustainability reports. New permitting regulations incorporate the Equator Principles. | Conduct independent audits, adopt The Copper Mark or IRMA certification, apply blockchain traceability. |
| Nationalisation risk is too high. | Zero producing copper assets have been expropriated since 2002. Past disputes resolved through arbitration and settled within agreed timelines. | Pledge shares to lenders under English law. Obtain expropriation cover through MIGA or private syndicates. |
When stakeholders maintain objections even after the data addresses each concern, investors should ask whether alternative motives are in play. Shielding lower-grade assets in North America or Australia by suppressing capital uptake in the DRC is a plausible explanation that rarely surfaces in public dialogue.
8. Strategic Window for Action
- Drilling and bulk sampling in Katanga during 2025-2026 will move several projects into definitive feasibility. Early equity commitments secure board seats and offtake rights at modest premia before reserve upgrades lift valuations.
- Infrastructure mobilisations under way allow a 30-month pathway from financial close to first concentrate for underground copper projects. Lithium and manganese open-pit projects have even shorter schedules.
- Carbon-adjusted pricing models adopted by Europe in 2026 will penalise coal-powered metal supply chains, amplifying the cost advantage of hydro-rich Congolese operations.
- Western and Gulf strategic buyers now compete directly with Chinese enterprises for long-term offtake, raising takeover multiples for permitted assets. Early movers hold stronger negotiating leverage when consolidation accelerates.
Delay reallocates value to strategic buyers already executing on the ground. The decision is therefore not “whether” to engage but “how quickly”.
9. Closing Note
Grades above four percent copper, by-product credits that neutralise cash costs, a funded export corridor, and policy safeguards that meet lender tests create an investment setting unmatched by mature districts. Persistent scepticism after such empirical evidence often signals interests beyond prudent risk assessment. Investors mandated to deliver competitive returns in critical metals should conduct on-site diligence now, deploy capital during the current engineering window, and secure positions before the next pricing uplift.
