Disclosure. This outlook is informational. It is not an offer or solicitation. Participation in any FG Capital Advisors vehicle is limited to eligible investors under applicable law. Forecasts reference public sources and internal models; delivery, pricing and policy outcomes can shift.
Congo Basin Carbon Credit Market Outlook 2025–2035
Quick take: The Congo Basin holds ~3.7 million km² of rainforest and peat‑rich wetlands that store about 30 gigatonnes of carbon. Supply of high‑integrity credits from this biome can rise meaningfully by 2030–2035, provided verification capacity, community benefit‑sharing and host‑country rules are locked down. Price bands widen: quality nature‑based tonnes trade around $8–$18 today; a credible integrity path points to ~$20 by 2030 and a steeper climb after. Integrity frameworks (ICVCM), Article 6 linkages and the EU’s CBAM definitive phase in 2026 are the big demand triggers.
1. Baseline Facts: Size, Carbon Stock, Market Context
- The Basin spans roughly 3.7 million km², the largest rainforest block in Africa and second worldwide.
- The central peatland complex stores about 30 petagrams (≈30 gigatonnes) of carbon across ~145,000 km².
- The voluntary carbon market contracted sharply in 2023 as buyers waited for integrity guidance.
- The Integrity Council’s Core Carbon Principles (July 2023) are now the quality filter many buyers apply.
2. Supply Outlook: 2025–2035
Pipeline growth depends on three things: (i) credible MRV in peatlands, (ii) clear sovereignty and revenue‑sharing rules in DRC and Republic of Congo, and (iii) buyer comfort with Article 6 alignment. Our internal screen suggests a Congo Basin stream of 5–12 million tCO₂e per year by 2030 from peatland protection and restoration projects that meet CCP thresholds. That could rise to 15–25 million tCO₂e per year by 2035 if verification capacity scales and land‑tenure risk is solved. These are FG Capital estimates, not registry totals.
Key bottlenecks:
- Baselining wetlands at scale (satellite + field data) and leakage modeling.
- Registry throughput and double‑count checks with national NDCs.
- Local consent processes and escrow mechanics for benefit‑sharing.
3. Pricing Scenarios (USD/tCO₂e)
We anchor on three cases for Congo Basin peatland credits (avoidance + removal blend):
| Scenario | 2025–2027 | 2028–2030 | 2031–2035 | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | $6–$9 | $8–$12 | $10–$18 | Integrity adoption stalls, Article 6 bilateral deals stay patchy, buyers chase cheapest tonnes |
| Base | $9–$14 | $14–$22 | $22–$40 | ICVCM uptake, CBAM drives indirect demand, limited Article 6 acceptance in compliance‑adjacent schemes |
| High | $12–$18 | $20–$30 | $35–$55 | Full integrity convergence, clear Article 6 rules, Scope 3 pressure spikes, constrained high‑grade supply |
4. Policy & Market Triggers to Watch
4.1 Article 6 Finalisation
UNFCCC decisions on 6.2 accounting and 6.4 governance will decide if Congo Basin credits sit inside or alongside compliance systems.
4.2 EU CBAM (Definitive Phase 2026)
CBAM won’t buy offsets, but it forces exporters into embedded‑carbon reporting and cost exposure, nudging voluntary demand for high‑grade credits.
4.3 Integrity Frameworks (ICVCM, VCMI)
Once procurement policies are locked to CCP‑approved credits, low‑grade units get stranded. Congo projects that clear CCP/VCMI screens command a premium.
4.4 Host‑Country Rules
Export levies, registry controls and benefit‑sharing decrees in DRC/RC shape net proceeds and timing. Expect shifts post‑COP cycles as governments chase climate finance.
5. Demand Drivers
- Scope 3 targets hitting 2030 checkpoints.
- Sector schemes: CORSIA Phase 2 (aviation), IMO 2030 (shipping), heavy industry under CBAM pressure.
- Corporate preference for nature‑based removal or high‑risk‑adjusted avoidance backed by hydrology and legal safeguards.
6. Risk Map
- Methodology drift: Revised peatland methods can re‑rate issued tonnes.
- Political shifts: New taxes or retroactive claims on carbon revenue cut IRR.
- Verification bottlenecks: Registry backlogs delay cash flow.
- Media shocks: One “junk credit” headline can freeze buyer desks for months.
7. What We Offer
FG Capital Advisors runs a carbon stream strategy focused on Congo Basin peatlands. We put capital in up front and secure a tranche of future verified credits. High‑integrity screening, escrowed community payments, step‑in rights and optional liquidity wrappers are embedded. Investors can take proceeds or credits, subject to mandate.
Access to the full model set (supply curves, price bands, policy timelines) is available through our onboarding workflow.
Disclaimers
- No public offering is made here. Eligibility depends on jurisdiction and status.
- Forward figures are estimates. Verification, policy and market shifts can change results.
- Credits may be reclassified if standards evolve. Contract terms address, but cannot eliminate, that risk.
